If a recession is headed our way, the canaries in the economic coal mine that are most likely to sing its arrival will be Canada's big banks. That's because Canada's five biggest lenders — Royal Bank, TD, Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank and CIBC — have a hand in nearly every aspect of Canada's economy, from loaning businesses money for expansion to funding the mortgages that finance much of the housing market.

Those same banks are in the midst of revealing their quarterly earnings this week, and the numbers should offer a good glimpse of where the economy is headed.

Profits up

The Royal Bank of Canada was first to report last week, showing profits rising to a record $3.3 billion in the third quarter. CIBC was next, with a quarterly profit of $1.4 billion in the three months up to the end of July.

Both figures are up only slightly from last year's level, but in a world in which the financial media is warning of negative rates, inverted yields...

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/canadas-job-market-is-firing-on-all-cylinders/

Econ-o-metric: Why are so many Canadians who've reached retirement age still working? And what does a hot labour market mean for interest rates?

Canada’s economy may have reached peak velocity.

Employment was little changed in September from August, as employers added 112,000 full-time workers, offsetting a decline of similar magnitude in part-time work, Statistics Canada reported on Oct. 5.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 per cent, the lowest since the autumn of 2008.

Why the latest hiring data matters

The Bank of Canada was surprised by the economy’s strength this year. It is now paying extra attention to key indicators, such as the monthly jobs survey, for clues as to whether these extraordinarily good times will continue. If the central bank decides the first-half growth rate was for real, it will keep raising interest rates to stay ahead of inflation.

The trend

An unemployment rate of...